March 28, 2024

One-third of economists expect recession: survey | TheHill

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Approximately one-third of economists predict the U.S will enter a recession by the end of 2021, according to a survey published Monday. 

Thirty-four percent of economists surveyed by the Nationalist Association for Business Economics said a recession will begin by 2021. That’s a 9-point uptick since February. 

Two percent of economists said a recession will begin this year and 28 percent said one will begin in 2020, based on the survey. 

The results were first reported by The Associated Press. 

The economists also expressed concern that President TrumpDonald John TrumpO’Rourke: Trump driving global, U.S. economy into recession Manchin: Trump has ‘golden opportunity’ on gun reforms Objections to Trump’s new immigration rule wildly exaggerated MORE‘s tariffs and higher budget deficits could hurt the economy, the AP reports. 

Trump and administration officials, however, have been dismissive of widespread warnings of a recession after the increasing tariffs imposed on China during an escalating trade war between the two nations. Officials have dismissed claims that that tariffs are hurting American farmers and consumers, maintaining that they only hurt China despite conflicting claims from experts and struggling farmers.

“I don’t think we’re having a recession. We’re doing tremendously well,” Trump told reporters Sunday before departing from New Jersey. A strong economy is crucial to Trump’s 2020 reelection campaign. 

Just 5 percent of the economists surveyed said a comprehensive trade deal would result from the latest round of U.S. and China trade negotiations, the AP reports. Four percent said a superficial agreement is possible and almost 25 percent expected no agreement. 

The 226 economists, who mainly work for corporations and trade associations, were surveyed between July 14 and Aug. 1.

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Rebecca Klar
The Hill

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