Friday will be a make-or-break moment in President TrumpDonald John TrumpThe Memo: Trump tries to steal Democrats’ thunder in Iowa Democrats make closing arguments to Iowa voters Alexander to vote no on witnesses, bringing trial close to end MORE’s impeachment trial, as Republicans try to bring the proceedings to a close.
Senators will hold a crucial vote on whether or not to call new witnesses or compel documents as part of the Senate’s proceeding.
Though Trump is all but guaranteed to be acquitted at the end of the trial, Friday’s vote is a turning point that will determine what comes next, including how long it will last.
The Senate is expected to convene by 1 p.m. on Friday. Senators are warning that if Republicans successfully block witnesses, senators are likely to move quickly to Trump’s acquittal on Friday night or early Saturday.
Before a vote on witnesses, both Trump’s legal team and House managers get up to two hours each to make their case to the Senate, according to a resolution passed last week on the rules for the trial.
What happens after that? There are a few scenarios to watch for.
Scenario One: The Senate rejects calling witnesses, and moves to acquit Trump
This appears to be the most likely outcome as the pool of potential Republican votes is quickly shrinking.
Democratic senators are reviewing their procedural options for forcing GOP senators to take a round of politically tough votes. Even after it became clear that Republicans had the votes to pass the rules resolution last week, Democrats forced an hours-long fight over amendments.
“We’re looking at all of our parliamentary options to try to force as many votes as we can to put Republicans on the record,” said Sen. Chris MurphyChristopher (Chris) Scott MurphyStacey Abrams endorses Atlanta pastor in Georgia Senate bid Hillicon Valley: EU pushes back against US on Huawei | Interior Department grounds drones over cybersecurity concerns | Warren releases plan to fight election disinformation | House ethics panel warns against posting deepfakes On The Money: Trump takes victory lap with USMCA signing | Fed holds rates steady to open 2020 | Treasury rolls out new sanctions on Russia MORE (D-Conn.).
Murphy also appeared frustrated by talk among Republicans about wrapping the trial on Friday.
“What’s the point of any of this,” he said, questioning if GOP senators had already decided to skip witnesses and closed-door deliberations.
How long Democrats will be able to slow-walk the end of the trial is unclear. Sen. Rand PaulRandal (Rand) Howard PaulSwing votes steal spotlight in marathon Trump impeachment Q&A Overnight Defense: House passes bills to rein in Trump on Iran | Pentagon seeks Iraq’s permission to deploy missile defenses | Roberts refuses to read Paul question on whistleblower during impeachment trial John Roberts refuses to read question from Rand Paul on whistleblower MORE (R-Ky.) predicted that the Senate would be voting for 12 hours on Friday, indicating that senators are preparing for a long day.
Senate Minority Leader Charles SchumerCharles (Chuck) Ellis SchumerDershowitz says media ‘willfully distorted’ his view of presidential power McConnell, Romney vie for influence over Trump’s trial Ted Cruz clarifies after Lev Parnas’s lawyer calls senator’s tweet ‘fake news’ MORE (D-N.Y.) declined to tip his hand but noted that “the minority has rights and we will exercise those rights.”
But Republicans say they are prepared to grind it out and stay in session until Trump is acquitted.
A GOP aide joked that McConnell would face a “revolt” if the leader agreed to delay the final votes, underscoring how eager some Republicans are to get the trial, and the around-the-clock work schedule, behind them.
“As we did with the organizing resolution, we’ll be prepared to stay through here completion,” Barrasso said.
Scenario Two: The Senate deadlocks in a 50-50 tie
One option that has sparked days of speculation around the Capitol is that the Senate’s vote could result in a 50-50 tie on the issue of calling witnesses.
Normally when the Senate deadlocks, Vice President Pence is taxied to the chamber so he can cast a deciding vote. But Pence does not have a role in the Senate’s trial, as Chief Justice John Roberts is the presiding officer.
If Roberts casts a tie-breaking vote, he would put himself in the middle of a fierce political fight.
With Collins to vote to allow witnesses, Democrats would need to win over two more GOP yes votes to force the deadlock.
Scenario Tree: The Senate votes to call witnesses
Trump’s legal team and Senate Republicans have warned that if Bolton is called, the president should be able to call his own witnesses to testify including former Vice President Biden and his son Hunter Biden.
Under the rules for the trial passed last week, any witnesses that senators agree to subpoena would first be deposed behind closed doors. The Senate would then decide if the individual needed to testify. But the rules do not put a cap on how long that process can take.
House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam SchiffAdam Bennett SchiffSwing votes steal spotlight in marathon Trump impeachment Q&A Trump insists he isn’t worried about impeachment: ‘This is a happy period’ Warren puts Justice Roberts in awkward spot with Supreme Court legitimacy question MORE (D-Calif.) pitched senators Thursday on the idea that if they agreed to call witnesses, depositions could be limited to one week.
“Can we take one week to hear from these witnesses?” Schiff asked. “I think we can. I think we should. I think we must.”
