August 21, 2019

Le Pen Will Be Mightier Than the Leftist Sword on Election Day

Le Pen also wants to end immigration, slash crime, eradicate Islamism, pull France out of the EU with its emphasis on open borders for all EU citizens

I predict that contrary to all the French polls, Marine Le Pen, the charismatic right wing leader of the French National Front Party, will ultimately win the French presidency.

I see some of the same signs, both global and local, that led me to successfully predict the Brexit win and the election of Donald Trump several months before the actual American election.

Le Pen is riding an international wave of economic populism, anti-elitism, nationalism and anti-radical Muslim immigration.

As in Britain and the United States, the 2008-2009 international recession devastated many French working class and middle income families—especially in northern France, considered France’s industrial heartland Northern France is Marine Le Pen’s political base. For many years now, Le Pen and her party have established natural and deep roots in this “France’s rust belt.”

Many factories closed in small northern French cities and towns and in many small French towns and cities throughout France, creating significant unemployment- approximately three million people or over 10% unemployment, after years of stubborn economic stagnation.

As in Britain and the U.S., the French workers feel ignored and abandoned by their leftist, supposedly pro-labor political representatives. This feeling of abandonment by indifferent French political elites, on the left and on the right, is shared throughout French society.

A recent survey showed 89% of French voters believe politicians do not listen to them.

According to Joel Gombin, a politics professor at the University of Picardie Jules Verne, “ National Front voters are united by a sense that they don’t feel represented by the workings of the current political system. They are fed up with traditional parties who failed to protect them from the economic crisis and from what many see as the dangers of immigration and recent terrorist attacks.”

As Hillary ignored the Pennsylvania coal miners, Detroit auto workers and Wisconsin farmers, similarly, the current French Socialist President Hollande has so alienated his labor base, that he is not even seeking re-election.

Similarly, French voters of the centre and the centre right, have turned away from such established conservatives as Sarkozy and Fillion and are seriously considering Le Pen’s appeal.

Le Pen and the NF party have extended their appeal beyond their northern France working class base.

As Trump, Le Pen’s appeal is not limited to the poorly educated working class. Le Pen is attracting support from all strata of society; including small business owners, employees of private companies and from public sector workers. Over 50% of the police and military vote for the National Front.

As Trump, Le Pen stresses economic nationalism and protectionism ( which favor French business) in order to kick start the French economy and create much needed jobs. Le Pen is also for reviving French nationalism, protecting French national identity and protecting the French people from domestic terrorism.

Le Pen also wants to end immigration, slash crime, eradicate Islamism, pull France out of the EU with its emphasis on open borders for all EU citizens.

Conventional polls have Le Pen succeeding to round 2 after the April 20 vote, but losing decisively to Macron, an unknown centre candidate on May 7.

I believe the polls are wrong. Le Pen will win the presidency decisively. Le Pen has tremendous popular and populist support. Le Pen’s voters will come out to vote with enthusiasm. Le Pen has a terrific “get out the vote” ground game. And she has very favorable global/ national political winds at her back.

Source: Canada Free Press

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